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The pound stayed above $1.36, near its highest level since mid-February, as investors weighed escalating US-Iran tensions and the aftermath of last week’s UK local elections. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal as “totally unacceptable,” accusing Tehran of “playing games.” While reports claimed Iran had offered to export part of its uranium stockpile, with the possibility of repatriation if talks fail, Iran denied the reports, calling Trump’s demands “excessive.” At home, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to deliver a key speech on Monday to reassure Labour MPs of his leadership following significant election losses and mounting speculation about a potential challenge. On the macro front, the UK’s jobs market showed persistent weakness, with hiring for permanent positions falling at the fastest pace in three months in April, according to a report from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG.

Pound Holds Near Mid-February Peak

The FTSE 100 edged slightly higher on Monday, outperforming weaker European peers as gains in heavyweight oil stocks and a strong update from Compass supported the index. Shell rose 0.6% and BP added 0.9% as Brent crude climbed back above $105 per barrel after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal as “totally unacceptable.” Compass jumped more than 3.5% after raising its full year profit guidance, helped by acquisitions and improving margins, with analysts pointing to stronger expected growth in the second half of the year. International Airlines Group also gained around 4% following strong first quarter results that showed a 77% increase in operating profit. On the downside, defence related stocks weakened, with BAE Systems down 1.5%, Babcock falling 2.8% and Rolls Royce slipping 1.2%.

FTSE 100 Outperforms Europe

The euro remained above $1.175, close to its highest level in three weeks, as investors considered the impact of rising tensions between the US and Iran alongside growing expectations of additional ECB rate hikes. Brent crude surpassed $105 per barrel following President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest peace proposal as “totally unacceptable.” The future of the Strait of Hormuz is still uncertain, after reports suggested Iran had proposed diluting some of its enriched uranium and sending the remainder to a third country, a claim Iran denied. Money markets are now anticipating at least two ECB rate increases this year, with a probability exceeding 78% for the first hike in June. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated on Friday that the central bank is prepared to take swift action if necessary, emphasizing that the euro area’s economic position is stronger now than it was before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Euro Little-Changed on US-Iran Tensions, ECB Hike Bets

The CAC 40 fell 0.6% to 8,061 on Monday, tracking broader losses across European peers as faltering US–Iran peace negotiations weighed on market sentiment. US President Trump and Iranian officials rejected each other’s latest proposals aimed at ending the prolonged conflict, with Trump stating that Iran’s counterproposal was “totally unacceptable” and Tehran emphasizing that it would “never bow.” The latest developments underscored the fragility of the current ceasefire, triggering surging oil prices and adding pressure on energy-dependent European economies. Domestically, investors looked ahead to key data releases later this week, including the unemployment rate and final inflation figures. Notable decliners included LVMH (-1%), Schneider Electric (-1.3%), Airbus (-1.3%), Safran (-1.4%), AXA (-4.9%), and Veolia Environnement (-4.2%). In contrast, TotalEnergies climbed 1.2%, supported by higher oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

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