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Silver climbed above $74.5 per ounce on Thursday as hopes for a Middle East resolution weakened the dollar and oil prices, easing inflation and interest rate hike concerns. Israel and Lebanon’s ceasefire agreement to end hostilities raised hopes for a broader de-escalation in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Additionally, the Republican-led US House of Representatives passed a resolution to block President Donald Trump from continuing military action against Iran. However, uncertainty about the war’s end persists, and regional tensions remain elevated. Since the conflict began in late February, silver has lost about 20% as surging oil prices fueled inflation fears and increased the likelihood of higher interest rates.

Silver Surges as Middle East Ceasefire Hopes Weigh on Dollar, Oil

The dollar index slipped to 99.2 on Thursday, snapping a three-session winning streak, as crude prices retreated after hopes increased that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon could pave the way for a broader diplomatic deal with Iran. Despite the improvement in market sentiment, uncertainty remains elevated and the geopolitical situation continues to be highly fragile, with oil prices still significantly above pre-conflict levels and the greenback continuing to trade near two-month highs. Investors price in the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike before year-end, potentially as early as October, amid concerns that higher energy costs could fuel inflationary pressures. At the same time, recent labor market data have pointed to a resilient US economy, with employment conditions strengthening over the past two months. Friday's jobs report is expected to provide further clues about the health of the labor market and the outlook for monetary policy.

Dollar Eases But Hovers Close to 2-Month highs

Gold climbed above $4,500 per ounce on Thursday as hopes for a Middle East resolution weakened the dollar and oil prices, easing concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes. Israel and Lebanon’s agreement to implement a ceasefire and end hostilities fueled optimism for a broader deal to de-escalate the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Additionally, the Republican-led US House of Representatives passed a resolution to block President Donald Trump from continuing military action against Iran. Still, uncertainty about the war’s end lingers, and regional tensions remain high. Since the conflict began in late February, gold has lost about 16% as surging oil prices stoked inflation fears and raised the likelihood of higher interest rates. Meanwhile, consultancy Metals Focus forecasts gold will resume its bull run in the second half of the year but expects demand to fall by 2% in 2026, driven by double-digit declines in jewelry and central bank purchases.

Gold Rises on Middle East Ceasefire Hopes

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 4bps to 4.46% on Thursday, nearly reversing the 6bps increase recorded in the previous session. Treasury prices benefited from a decline in oil prices as hopes grew that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon could pave the way for a broader deal with Iran. Despite the improvement in sentiment, uncertainty remains elevated and the situation continues to be highly fragile, with oil prices still well above pre-conflict levels. Investors also continue to price in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end, potentially as early as October, as higher energy prices add to inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, recent labor market data have pointed to a resilient US economy, with employment conditions strengthening over the past two months. Friday's jobs report is expected to provide further insight into the underlying strength of the labor market and its implications for monetary policy.

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